Unemployment due to the SARS-CoV-2-pandemic among people with and without severe disabilities: a difference-in-differences analysis

Objectives: Unemployment reduces health and impairs participation in important areas of life, especially for people with severe disabilities, who tend to have a longer duration of unemployment and are less likely to find new employment than their counterparts without such constraints. Our analysis examines the increase in unemployment due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic among people with and without severe disabilities in Germany.

Methods: Monthly cross-sectional data on unemployment for 2019 and 2020 were provided by the Federal Employment Agency. We used a difference-in-differences model to estimate the increase in unemployment attributable to the pandemic. The months April to December 2020 represented the months of exposure to the pandemic. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) are reported.

Results: The increase in unemployment among people with severe disabilities due to the pandemic is 11.2% (IRR 1.112; 95% CI 1.107 to 1.117). People with severe disabilities receiving unemployment benefits due to unemployment lasting less than a year (Social Code III: short-term unemployment) and women have been most affected. Among people without severe disabilities, unemployment has increased by 24.8% due to the pandemic (IRR 1.248; 95% CI 1.246 to 1.249), while people receiving unemployment benefits according to social code III and men have been most affected. Both groups show a varying increase in unemployment depending on the region of residency.

Conclusions: The findings show a particularly significant increase in unemployment among people without severe disabilities. People with severe disabilities might be less impacted due to the special legal protection against their dismissal. The clear regional differences in the increase in unemployment suggest a strong influence of regional economics.