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Special ReportCigarette Smoking and Lung Cancer Trends: A Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Section snippets
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Cigarette smoking prevalence for US men and women aged 18 years and older in percent were obtained from two survey sources: (1) data published by Burbank3 for 1920 to 1960, and (2) data published by Giovino et al4 for 1965 to 1990. The percentages were plotted at 5-year intervals up to 1990.
Curves for annual lung cancer age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000) by sex from 1930 to 1992 were recently published by Parker et al.5 The exact rates were obtained (S. Parker, personal communication,
RESULTS
The curves for men are shown in Figure 1. The prevalence of current cigarette smokers was estimated to be 46% in 1920 and rose steadily to 65% in 1940, plateaued until 1955, and then began to decline progressively, reaching 28% in 1990.
The male lung cancer mortality rate was only 4.9/100,000/yr in 1930, rose slowly at first, and then more rapidly until 1980. Thereafter it slowed and peaked at 75.6 in 1990. The rate then fell to 74.6 in 1991 (not shown) and 73.1 in 1992. The population latency
DISCUSSION
Cigarette smoking prevalence estimates from 1955 on were based on national probability samples. The data prior to 1955 may not be as reliable. Estimates for men were based on annual marketing surveys by the Milwaukee Journal in its metropolitan area. Therefore the sample may not be representative of all US men. However, Burbank3 found that there was good agreement with national surveys beginning in 1955 and therefore used a straight line approximation for the early data. Milwaukee estimates for
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The author is grateful to Sheryl L. Parker, MSPH, Surveillance Research Group, American Cancer Society, for providing the age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates in the United States, 1930 to 1992.
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