Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Estimation of long-term average exposure to outdoor air pollution for a cohort study on mortality

Abstract

Recent prospective cohort studies have suggested that long-term exposure to low levels of particulate matter (PM) air pollution is associated with increased mortality due to, especially, cardio-pulmonary disease. Exposure to ambient air pollution was estimated mostly as city average concentrations, assuming homogenous exposure within the city. We used an ongoing cohort study — The Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS) on diet and cancer — to investigate the relationship between traffic-related air pollution and mortality. The baseline data collection took place in 1986. A study was conducted to develop methods for exposure assessment and evaluate the contrast in exposure to air pollution within the cohort. Assessment of long-term exposure to two traffic-related air pollutants, Black Smoke (BS) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), consisted of separate estimation of regional background, urban background, and local traffic contributions at the home address. Interpolation of concentration data from a routine monitoring network was used to estimate the regional background concentration. A regression model relating degree of urbanization to air pollution was used to allow for differences between different towns/neighborhoods of cities. Distance to major roads was calculated to characterize local traffic contributions, using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Interpolation resulted in reasonably precise regional background estimation when distant sites were not used and distance squared was used as the weight. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors were about 15% of the range in regional background concentration. Urban and local scales contributed significantly to the contrast within the cohort. Prediction errors for estimating the urban background were about 25% of the range in background concentrations. When the developed model was applied to the study cohort, there was substantial contrast in estimated exposure to BS and NO2. About 90% of the study population lived 10 years or more at its 1986 home address — supporting the use of the estimated concentration at the 1986 address as a relevant exposure variable.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abbey, DE, Lebowitz, MD, Mills, PK et al. Long-term ambient concentrations of particulates and oxidants and development of chronic disease in a cohort of non-smoking, California residents. Inhalation Toxicol (1995) 7: 19–34

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Abbey, DE, Nishino, N, McDonnell, WF, Burchette, RJ, Knutsen, SF, Beeson, WL, and Yang, JX . Long-term inhalable particles and other air pollutants related to mortality in nonsmokers. Am J Respir Crit Care Med (1999) 159: 373–382

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ackermann-Liebrich, U, Leuenberger, P, Schwartz, J, Schindler, C, Monn, C, Bolognini, G, Bongard, JP et al. Lung function and long-term exposure to air pollutants in Switzerland. Am Crit Care Med (1997) 155: 122–129

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bernard, NL, Astre, CM, Vuillot, B, Saintot, MJ, and Gerber, MJ . Measurement of background urban nitrogen dioxide pollution levels with passive samplers in Montpellier, France. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol (1997) 7: 165–178

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bloemen, HJTh, van Bree, L, Buringh, E, Fischer PH, Loos, S . de, Marra, M, and Rombout, PJA . Fine particles in the Netherlands. Report 650010006. National Institute of Public Health and Environment 1998 (in Dutch with English summary)

    Google Scholar 

  • Briggs, DJ, Collins, S, Pryl, K, Smallbone, K, and van der Veen, A . Mapping urban air pollution using GIS: a regression-based approach. Int J Geogr Inf Sci (1997) 11: 699–718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunekreef, B . Air pollution and life expectancy: is there a relation? Occup Environ Med (1997) 54: 781–784

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Brunekreef, B, Janssen, NAH, de Hartog, J, Harssema, H, Knape, M, and van Vliet, P . Air pollution from truck traffic and lung function in children living near motorways. Epidemiology (1997) 8: 298–303

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Chow, J . Measurement methods to determine compliance with ambient air quality standards for suspended particles. J Air Waste Manage Assoc (1995) 45: 320–382

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Dockery, DW, Pope, CA III, Xu, X, Spengler, JD, Ware, JH, Fay, ME, Ferris, BG, and Speizer, FE . An association between air pollution and mortality in six US cities. N Engl J Med (1993) 329: 1753–1759

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Dockery, DW, Cunningham, J, Damokosh, AI, Neas, LM, Spengler, JD, Koutrakis, P, Ware, JH, and Speizer, FE . Health effects of acid aerosols on North American children: respiratory symptoms. Environ Health Perspect (1996) 104: 500–505

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, JD, Ogren, JA, Weiss, RE, and Charlson, RJ . Particulate air pollutants: a comparison of British “smoke” with optical absorption coefficient and elemental carbon concentration. Atmos Environ (1983) 17: 2337–2341

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, J, Walters, S, and Griffith, RK . Hospital admissions for asthma in preschool children: relationship to major roads in Birmingham, United Kingdom. Arch Environ Health (1994) 49: 223–227

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Eerens, HC, Sliggers, CJ, and van Hout, KD . The CAR model: the Dutch method to determine city street air quality. Atmos Environ (1993) 27B: 389–399

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elskamp, HJ . National air quality monitoring network. Technical description. Report 228702017. National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, the Netherlands 1989

    Google Scholar 

  • English, P, Neutra, R, Scalf, R, Sullivan, M, Waller, L, and Zhu, L . Examining associations between childhood asthma and traffic flow using a geographical information system. Environ Health Perspect (1999) 107: 761–767

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, PH, Hoek, G, Reeuwijk, H, Briggs, DJ, Lebret, E, van Wijnen, JH, Kingham, S, and Elliott, PE . Traffic-related differences in outdoor and indoor concentrations of particles and organic compounds in Amsterdam. Atmos Environ (2000) 34: 3713–3722

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hoek, G, Mennen, MG, Allen, GA, Hofschreuder, P, and vd Meulen, T . Concentrations of acidic air pollutants in the Netherlands. Atmos Environ (1996) 30: 3141–3150

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hoek, G, Forsberg, B, Borowska, M et al. Wintertime PM10 and Black Smoke concentrations across Europe: results from the PEACE study. Atmos Environ (1997) 31: 3609–3622

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, YL, and Batterman, S . Residence location as a measure of environmental exposure: a review of air pollution epidemiology studies. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol (2000) 10: 66–85

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ito, K, Thurston, GD, Nadas, A, and Lippmann, M . Monitor-to-monitor temporal correlation of air pollution and weather variables in the North Central US. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol (2001) 11: 21–32

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Janssen, NAH, van Vliet, PHN, Harssema, H, Brunekreef, B, and Fischer, PH . Ontwikkeling methodiek voor het schatten van langdurige blootstelling aan verkeersgerelateerde luchtverontreiniging, voor toepassing in onderzoek naar chronische effecten van luchtverontreiniging. Rapport 1999-485. Wageningen Universiteit, afdeling Gezondheidsleer (in Dutch)

  • Janssen, NAH, van Vliet, PHN, Aarts, F, Harssema, H, and Brunekreef, B . Assessment of exposure to traffic related air pollutants of children attending schools near motorways. Atmos Environ (2001) 35: 3875–3884

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kuenzli, N, Lurmann, F, Segal, M, Ngo, L, Balmes, J, and Tager, IB . Association between lifetime ambient ozone exposure and pulmonary function in college freshmen — results from a pilot study. Environ Res (1997) 72: 8–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lebret, E, Briggs, D, van Reeuwijk, H, Fischer, P, Smallbone, K, Harssema, H, Kriz, B, Gorynski, P, and Elliott, P . Small area variations in ambient NO2 concentrations in four European areas. Atmos Environ (2000) 34: 177–185

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, LJS, and Rossini, AJ . Use of kriging models to predict 12-hour mean ozone concentrations in metropolitan Toronto — a pilot study. Environ Int (1996) 22: 677–692

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nikiforov, SV, Aggarwal, M, Nadas, A, and Kinney, PL . Methods for spatial interpolation of long-term ozone concentrations. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol (1998) 8: 465–481

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pope, CA III, Thun, MJ, Namboodiri, MM et al. Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of US adults. Am J Respir Crit Care Med (1995) 151: 669–674

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Raaschou-Nielsen, O, Hertel, O, Vignati, E, Berkowicz, R, Jensen, SS, Larsen, VB, Lohse, C, and Olsen, JH . An air pollution model for use in epidemiological studies: evaluation with measured levels of nitrogen dioxide and benzene. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol (2000) 10: 4–14

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rijnders, E, Janssen, NAH, Vliet, PHN, and Brunekreef, B . Personal and outdoor nitrogen dioxide concentrations in relation to degree of urbanization and traffic density. Environ Health Perspect (2001) 109 (Suppl) 411–417

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Roorda-Knape, MC, Janssen, NAH, de P van Hartog, JJ, Harssema, H, and Brunekreef, B . Air pollution from traffic near major motorways. Atmos Environ (1998) 32: 1921–1930

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schindler, C, Ackermann-Liebrich, U, and Leuenberger, P et al Associations between lung function and estimated average exposure to NO2 in eight areas of Switzerland. Epidemiology (1998) 9: 405–411

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Stedman, JR, Vincent, KJ, Campbell, GW, Goodwin, JWL, and Downing, CEH . New high resolution maps of estimated background ambient NOx and NO2 concentrations in the UK. Atmos Environ (1997) 31: 3591–3602

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • van den Brandt, P.A., Goldbohm, R.A, van't Veer, P, Volovics, A, Hermus, RJJ, and Sturmans, F . A large-scale prospective cohort study on diet and cancer in the Netherlands. J Clin Epidemiol (1990) 43: 285–295

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • van der Wal, JT, Janssen, LHJM . Analysis of spatial and temporal variations of PM10 concentrations in the Netherlands using Kalman filtering. Atmos Environ (2000) 34: 3675–3687

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • van Vliet, P, Knape, M, de Hartog, J, Janssen, N, Harssema, H, and Brunekreef, B . Motor vehicle exhaust and chronic respiratory symptoms in children living near motorways. Environ Res (1997) 74: 122–132

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Vine, MF, Degnan, D, and Hanchette, C . Geographic Information Systems: their use in environmental epidemiologic research. Environ Health Perspect (1997) 105: 598–605

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Wartenberg, D, Uchrin, C, and Coogan, P . Estimating exposure using kriging: a simulation study. Environ Health Perspect (1991) 94: 75–82

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Weiland, SK, Mundt, KA, Rueckmann, A, and Keil, U . Self-reported wheezing and allergic rhinitis in children and traffic density on street of residence. Ann Epidemiol (1994) 4: 243–247

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Wjst, M, Reitmeir, P, Dold, S et al Road traffic and adverse effects on respiratory health in children. Br Med J (1993) 307: 596–600

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to GERARD HOEK.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

HOEK, G., FISCHER, P., VAN DEN BRANDT, P. et al. Estimation of long-term average exposure to outdoor air pollution for a cohort study on mortality. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 11, 459–469 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jea.7500189

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jea.7500189

Keywords

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links