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  • Original Article
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Air pollution dispersion models for human exposure predictions in London

Abstract

The London household survey has shown that people travel and are exposed to air pollutants differently. This argues for human exposure to be based upon space–time–activity data and spatio-temporal air quality predictions. For the latter, we have demonstrated the role that dispersion models can play by using two complimentary models, KCLurban, which gives source apportionment information, and Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ)-urban, which predicts hourly air quality. The KCLurban model is in close agreement with observations of NOX, NO2 and particulate matter (PM)10/2.5, having a small normalised mean bias (−6% to 4%) and a large Index of Agreement (0.71–0.88). The temporal trends of NOX from the CMAQ-urban model are also in reasonable agreement with observations. Spatially, NO2 predictions show that within 10’s of metres of major roads, concentrations can range from approximately 10–20 p.p.b. up to 70 p.p.b. and that for PM10/2.5 central London roadside concentrations are approximately double the suburban background concentrations. Exposure to different PM sources is important and we predict that brake wear-related PM10 concentrations are approximately eight times greater near major roads than at suburban background locations. Temporally, we have shown that average NOX concentrations close to roads can range by a factor of approximately six between the early morning minimum and morning rush hour maximum periods. These results present strong arguments for the hybrid exposure model under development at King’s and, in future, for in-building models and a model for the London Underground.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Natural Environment Research Council, Medical Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Department of Health for the funding received for the Traffic Pollution and Health in London project (NE/I008039/1), funded through the Environmental Exposures and Health Initiative (EEHI). The research was also supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London. The views expressed are those of the authors (s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.

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Correspondence to Sean D Beevers.

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Supplementary Information accompanies the paper on the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology website

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Beevers, S., Kitwiroon, N., Williams, M. et al. Air pollution dispersion models for human exposure predictions in London. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 23, 647–653 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/jes.2013.6

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