3-day temperature Moving average | 5-day temperature Moving average | 7-day temperature Moving average* | |
Relative risk (95% CI) | |||
37.0°C (10th percentile) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
38.0°C | 1.05 (0.95 to 1.15) | 1.11 (0.99 to 1.24) | 1.13 (1.00 to 1.27) |
39.0°C | 1.16 (1.09 to 1.23) | 1.33 (1.24 to 1.44) | 1.36 (1.26 to 1.46) |
39.4°C (mean) | 1.21 (1.14 to 1.28) | 1.43 (1.33 to 1.53) | 1.44 (1.34 to 1.53) |
40.0°C | 1.28 (1.20 to 1.36) | 1.50 (1.40 to 1.61) | 1.48 (1.39 to 1.59) |
41.0°C | 1.32 (1.20 to 1.45) | 1.44 (1.30 to 1.61) | 1.44 (1.27 to 1.63) |
42.0°C (90th percentile) | 1.31 (1.12 to 1.54) | 1.33 (1.03 to 1.71) | 1.33 (0.99 to 1.79) |
Temperature was fitted with penalised splines; all models were adjusted for seasonality, day of the week and relative humidity.
Values in bold represent statistically significant effect estimates (p<0.05).
*This model provided the lowest AIC.
AIC, Akaike information criterion.