Statistically significant baseline risk factors for sickness absence attributed to shoulder pain in month before follow-up
| Risk factor | No sickness absence for shoulder pain | Absence attributed all or in part to shoulder pain | Absence attributed only to shoulder pain | ||||
| N | *OR | (95% CI) | N | *OR | (95% CI) | ||
| Smoking habits | |||||||
| Never | 5391 | 164 | 1 | 50 | 1 | ||
| Ex-smoker | 1175 | 26 | 1.1 | (0.7 to 1.7) | 3 | 0.3 | (0.1 to 1.0) |
| Current | 1807 | 24 | 0.8 | (0.5 to 1.2) | 4 | 0.3 | (0.1 to 0.8) |
| No of distressing somatic symptoms in past week | |||||||
| 0 | 5059 | 79 | 1 | 28 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 1840 | 54 | 1.3 | (0.9 to 1.8) | 13 | 1.2 | (0.6 to 2.3) |
| ≥2 | 1452 | 80 | 1.8 | (1.2 to 2.5) | 16 | 1.6 | (0.8 to 3.3) |
| Adverse health beliefs about arm pain | |||||||
| Need to avoid physical activity | 1032 | 35 | 1.6 | (1.1 to 2.4) | 5 | 0.8 | (0.3 to 2.2) |
| Pain propensity index | |||||||
| 0 | 1948 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 1983 | 34 | 1.5 | (0.9 to 2.7) | 16 | 2.4 | (0.9 to 5.8) |
| 2 | 1787 | 40 | 1.8 | (1.0 to 3.1) | 11 | 1.7 | (0.6 to 4.6) |
| 3 | 1165 | 46 | 2.6 | (1.5 to 4.5) | 10 | 2.3 | (0.8 to 6.3) |
| 4 | 749 | 27 | 2.1 | (1.1 to 3.9) | 4 | 1.5 | (0.4 to 5.4) |
| 5 | 394 | 18 | 2.3 | (1.1 to 4.6) | 4 | 2.7 | (0.7 to 10.0) |
| ≥6 | 370 | 29 | 3.8 | (2.0 to 7.2) | 5 | 3.4 | (1.0 to 12.2) |
*ORs with 95% CIs derived from a single logistic regression model for each outcome that included all of the risk factors listed together with age (four strata), mental health, personal adverse beliefs about arm pain (poor prognosis), work with hands above shoulder height for >1 hour per day, work for >50 hours per week, group prevalence of adverse beliefs about need to avoid physical activity with arm pain and group mean pain propensity index. Risk estimates are presented only for factors that were significantly associated (p<0.05) with at least one of the two outcomes.