Table 4

Statistically significant baseline risk factors for sickness absence attributed to neck pain in month before follow-up

Risk factorNo sickness absence for neck painAbsence attributed all or in part to neck painAbsence attributed only to neck pain
N*OR(95% CI)N*OR(95% CI)
Smoking habits
 Ex-smoker1171300.8(0.5 to 1.2)60.4(0.2 to 0.9)
 Current1784471.1(0.8 to 1.6)201.1(0.6 to 1.9)
No of distressing somatic symptoms in past week
 11825691.1(0.8 to 1.5)241.2(0.7 to 2.0)
 ≥214191131.6(1.2 to 2.2)271.6(0.9 to 2.7)
Psychosocial aspects of work
 Job dissatisfaction1597631.5(1.0 to 2.0)181.1(0.6 to 1.9)
Adverse health beliefs about arm pain
 Poor prognosis839491.4(1.0 to 2.0)151.4(0.8 to 2.5)
Factors defined at occupational group level
 Prevalence of absence (>5 days) in past year for non-musculoskeletal health problems (1 SD increase)1.3(1.0 to 1.6)1.4(1.1 to 1.9)
 Group mean pain propensity index (1 SD increase)1.7(1.3 to 2.4)1.4(1.0 to 1.8)
 Prevalence of adverse health beliefs about arm pain (work-relatedness) (1 SD increase)0.7(0.5 to 0.9)0.7(0.5 to 0.9)
 Payment for primary care1.8(1.1 to 3.0)1.2(0.7 to 2.0)
Pain propensity index
 12033491.3(0.8 to 2.0)211.5(0.7 to 3.0)
 21448571.8(1.1 to 2.9)211.9(0.9 to 3.8)
 31127602.1(1.3 to 3.4)192.0(1.0 to 4.2)
 4668341.8(1.0 to 3.0)121.9(0.8 to 4.3)
 5465271.6(0.9 to 2.8)61.2(0.4 to 3.5)
 ≥6424432.7(1.6 to 4.5)51.0(0.3 to 3.0)
  • *ORs with 95% CIs derived from a single logistic regression model for each outcome that included all of the risk factors listed together with sex, mental health, personal absence from work in past year for non-musculoskeletal health problems, personal adverse beliefs about the work-relatedness of arm pain, lack of support at work and job insecurity. Risk estimates are presented only for factors that were significantly associated (p<0.05) with at least one of the two outcomes.