Model-based LDCT eligibility criteria comparison1
| Measure | BTMed risk model calibrated to Tammemagi model† | NCCN category 1 or category 2 by BTMed predicted risk‡ | Tammemagi model§ | NCCN category 1 or category 2 by Tammemagi predicted risk¶ |
| Proportion 50–80 years of age LDCT eligible (%) | 30.1 | 29.5 | 30.1 | 31.4 |
| Sensitivity % (95% CI) | 76.0 (70.1 to 81.0) | 72.7 (70.0 to 77.9) | 70.5 (64.7 to 75.8) | 71.6 (65.8 to 76.9) |
| Specificity % (95% CI) | 70.9 (70.1 to 71.7) | 71.5 (70.7 to 72.3) | 70.8 (70.0 to 71.6) | 69.5 (68.7 to 70.4) |
| Positive predictive value % (95% CI) | 5.5 (4.8 to 6.3) | 5.3 (4.6 to 6.1) | 5.1 (4.4 to 5.8) | 5.0 (4.3 to 5.7) |
*Results based on the mortality cohort restricted to 12 508 workers 50–80 years of age at cohort entry and having an FEV1 >40% predicted.
†Predicted risk threshold for BTMed mortality risk that results in screening the same number of workers as the Tammemagi 2014 model applied to this cohort, with a risk threshold ≥1.3%. The comparable threshold for the 5-year risk of lung cancer mortality using the BTMed model was ≥0.86%.
‡NCCN category 1 or category 2 with BTMed mortality risk ≥0.86%. Category 2 would be considered NCCN category 2a.8
§Tammemagi31 predicted 6-year lung cancer risk ≥1.3%, which results in the same number CT eligible as the USPSTF criteria in the PLCO cohort.
¶NCCN category 1 or category 2 with Tammemagi31 predicted 6-year lung cancer risk ≥1.3%. Category 2 would be considered NCCN category 2a.8
BTMed, Building Trades National Medical Screening Program; FEV1, 1s force expiratory volume; LDCT, low-dose CT; NCCN, National Comprehensive Cancer Network; PLCO, Prostate, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial; USPSTF, US Preventive Services Task Force.