Statistically significant baseline risk factors for sickness absence attributed to neck pain in month before follow-up
| Risk factor | No sickness absence for neck pain | Absence attributed all or in part to neck pain | Absence attributed only to neck pain | ||||
| N | *OR | (95% CI) | N | *OR | (95% CI) | ||
| Smoking habits | |||||||
| Never | 5331 | 224 | 1 | 71 | 1 | ||
| Ex-smoker | 1171 | 30 | 0.8 | (0.5 to 1.2) | 6 | 0.4 | (0.2 to 0.9) |
| Current | 1784 | 47 | 1.1 | (0.8 to 1.6) | 20 | 1.1 | (0.6 to 1.9) |
| No of distressing somatic symptoms in past week | |||||||
| 0 | 5022 | 116 | 1 | 44 | |||
| 1 | 1825 | 69 | 1.1 | (0.8 to 1.5) | 24 | 1.2 | (0.7 to 2.0) |
| ≥2 | 1419 | 113 | 1.6 | (1.2 to 2.2) | 27 | 1.6 | (0.9 to 2.7) |
| Psychosocial aspects of work | |||||||
| Job dissatisfaction | 1597 | 63 | 1.5 | (1.0 to 2.0) | 18 | 1.1 | (0.6 to 1.9) |
| Adverse health beliefs about arm pain | |||||||
| Poor prognosis | 839 | 49 | 1.4 | (1.0 to 2.0) | 15 | 1.4 | (0.8 to 2.5) |
| Factors defined at occupational group level | |||||||
| Prevalence of absence (>5 days) in past year for non-musculoskeletal health problems (1 SD increase) | 1.3 | (1.0 to 1.6) | 1.4 | (1.1 to 1.9) | |||
| Group mean pain propensity index (1 SD increase) | 1.7 | (1.3 to 2.4) | 1.4 | (1.0 to 1.8) | |||
| Prevalence of adverse health beliefs about arm pain (work-relatedness) (1 SD increase) | 0.7 | (0.5 to 0.9) | 0.7 | (0.5 to 0.9) | |||
| Payment for primary care | 1.8 | (1.1 to 3.0) | 1.2 | (0.7 to 2.0) | |||
| Pain propensity index | |||||||
| 0 | 2143 | 32 | 1 | 13 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 2033 | 49 | 1.3 | (0.8 to 2.0) | 21 | 1.5 | (0.7 to 3.0) |
| 2 | 1448 | 57 | 1.8 | (1.1 to 2.9) | 21 | 1.9 | (0.9 to 3.8) |
| 3 | 1127 | 60 | 2.1 | (1.3 to 3.4) | 19 | 2.0 | (1.0 to 4.2) |
| 4 | 668 | 34 | 1.8 | (1.0 to 3.0) | 12 | 1.9 | (0.8 to 4.3) |
| 5 | 465 | 27 | 1.6 | (0.9 to 2.8) | 6 | 1.2 | (0.4 to 3.5) |
| ≥6 | 424 | 43 | 2.7 | (1.6 to 4.5) | 5 | 1.0 | (0.3 to 3.0) |
*ORs with 95% CIs derived from a single logistic regression model for each outcome that included all of the risk factors listed together with sex, mental health, personal absence from work in past year for non-musculoskeletal health problems, personal adverse beliefs about the work-relatedness of arm pain, lack of support at work and job insecurity. Risk estimates are presented only for factors that were significantly associated (p<0.05) with at least one of the two outcomes.