Table 3

HRs for outcomes of interest by exposure surrogate from models with and without adjustment for a healthy worker survivor effect using employment duration

	Exposed-days (all) referent 2500 days				Fire-runs (CFD, PFD) referent 2100 runs				Fire-hours (CFD) Referent 600 hours
Underlying cause^{ICD-10 codes} Cox model*	Cases	HR @ 8700 days	95% CI	P value†	Cases	HR @ 8800 runs	95% CI	P value†	Cases	HR @ 2300 hours	95% CI	P alue†
All cancers^C00-C97
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	1807	0.92	0.83 to 1.01		1577	0.93	0.86 to 1.00		1058	0.97	0.87 to 1.08
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.90	0.80 to 1.02	0.58		0.89	0.82 to 0.98	0.11		0.92	0.81 to 1.05	0.17
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.14	1.00 to 1.31			1.02	0.94 to 1.11			1.08	0.96 to 1.21
Fully adjusted RCS		1.11	0.94 to 1.31	0.51		1.00	0.91 to 1.11	0.58		1.04	0.90 to 1.21	0.43
MN oesophagus^C15
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	82	0.63	0.40 to 1.00		72	0.97	0.68 to 1.36		45	0.91	0.53 to 1.51
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.60	0.36 to 1.02	0.66		1.15	0.74 to 1.81	0.22		0.95	0.50 to 1.83	0.83
Fully adjusted loglinear		0.73	0.40 to 1.36			1.10	0.75 to 1.58			1.17	0.65 to 2.05
Fully adjusted RCS		0.65	0.33 to 1.36	0.55		1.45	0.88 to 2.44	0.10		1.31	0.64 to 2.75	0.61
MN stomach^C16
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	52	1.13	0.62 to 2.16		45	1.07	0.68 to 1.62		30	1.34	0.70 to 2.45
RCS		1.00	0.50 to 2.19	0.57		1.28	0.73 to 2.28	0.33		1.37	0.62 to 3.20	0.92
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.75	0.74 to 4.53			1.25	0.76 to 1.95			1.45	0.71 to 2.87
Fully adjusted RCS		1.40	0.51 to 4.44	0.49		1.67	0.87 to 3.31	0.18		1.54	0.63 to 3.94	0.84
MN colon^C18
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	145	0.83	0.58 to 1.18		132	0.83	0.63 to 1.08		100	0.79	0.54 to 1.12
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.77	0.51 to 1.17	0.51		0.80	0.58 to 1.09	0.67		0.79	0.51 to 1.21	1.00
Fully adjusted loglinear		0.87	0.56 to 1.38			0.89	0.66 to 1.18			0.84	0.56 to 1.26
Fully adjusted RCS		0.75	0.45 to 1.31	0.36		0.87	0.61 to 1.23	0.80		0.84	0.52 to 1.36	0.97
MN rectum^C19-C21
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	42	0.45	0.24 to 0.88		34	0.32	0.16 to 0.61		23	NR
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.41	0.21 to 0.83	0.44		0.39	0.17 to 0.87	0.33		NR
Fully adjusted loglinear		0.49	0.21 to 1.19			0.36	0.16 to 0.75			NR
Fully adjusted RCS		0.43	0.17 to 1.20	0.61		0.47	0.18 to 1.22	0.28		NR
MN lung^C33-C34
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	556	0.97	0.81 to 1.16		516	1.06	0.93 to 1.19		348	1.27	1.06 to 1.52
RCS without HWSE adjustment		1.01	0.81 to 1.27	0.50		0.95	0.82 to 1.11	0.02		1.20	0.95 to 1.51	0.40
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.38	1.08 to 1.78			1.21	1.05 to 1.38			1.48	1.21 to 1.80
Fully adjusted RCS		1.45	1.06 to 2.01	0.60		1.12	0.95 to 1.33	0.20		1.46	1.13 to 1.88	0.85
MN prostate^C61
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	126	0.88	0.62 to 1.25		104	0.87	0.66 to 1.14		76	0.78	0.53 to 1.14
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.80	0.52 to 1.27	0.52		0.81	0.58 to 1.13	0.43		0.63	0.40 to 1.01	0.13
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.04	0.65 to 1.71			0.92	0.67 to 1.25			0.82	0.52 to 1.27
Fully adjusted RCS		0.85	0.47 to 1.62	0.33		0.86	0.58 to 1.27	0.57		0.66	0.39 to 1.12	0.16
MN kidney^C64-C66
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	62	1.15	0.64 to 2.13		55	1.03	0.67 to 1.53		42	1.26	0.72 to 2.14
RCS without HWSE adjustment		1.23	0.64 to 2.52	0.63		1.15	0.69 to 1.94	0.43		1.55	0.78 to 3.22	0.32
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.03	0.50 to 2.24			0.94	0.59 to 1.46			1.15	0.63 to 2.08
Fully adjusted RCS		1.16	0.50 to 2.92	0.58		1.08	0.61 to 1.96	0.43		1.56	0.72 to 3.58	0.22
MN bladder^C67-C68
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	37	0.71	0.37 to 1.38		26	NR			20	NR
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.71	0.33 to 1.67	0.99		NR				NR
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.23	0.50 to 3.41			NR				NR
Fully adjusted RCS		2.66	0.67 to 14.7	0.14		NR				NR
MN skin^{C43-C44, C46.0, C46.9}
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	48	1.10	0.59 to 2.13		39	0.96	0.58 to 1.51		25	NR
RCS without HWSE adjustment		1.09	0.52 to 2.55	0.96		1.00	0.56 to 1.84	0.78		NR
Fully adjusted loglinear		0.99	0.45 to 2.31			0.94	0.54 to 1.54			NR
Fully adjusted RCS		0.83	0.32 to 2.46	0.59		1.01	0.52 to 2.00	0.72		NR
MN brain^{C47, C70-C72}
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	45	1.16	0.58 to 2.43		31	1.01	0.58 to 1.69		17	NR
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.67	0.32 to 1.52	0.02		1.07	0.55 to 2.14	0.78		NR
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.04	0.44 to 2.69			0.99	0.53 to 1.76			NR
Fully adjusted RCS		0.46	0.18 to 1.38	0.02		1.07	0.50 to 2.38	0.76		NR
NHL^{C46.3, C82-C85, C88.0, C88.3, C91.4, C96}
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	76	0.94	0.60 to 1.50		65	0.70	0.47 to 1.01		40	0.61	0.35 to 1.04
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.96	0.54 to 1.82	0.92		0.71	0.45 to 1.11	0.90		0.79	0.39 to 1.68	0.24
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.10	0.60 to 2.11			0.74	0.47 to 1.12			0.64	0.34 to 1.17
Fully adjusted RCS		1.08	0.49 to 2.64	0.95		0.76	0.45 to 1.29	0.85		0.83	0.38 to 1.93	0.29
Leukemia^{C91.0-C91.3, C91.5-C91.9, C92-C95}
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	72	1.26	0.77 to 2.11		64	1.07	0.74 to 1.52		41	1.07	0.63 to 1.77
RCS without HWSE adjustment		1.12	0.61 to 2.19	0.56		1.46	0.90 to 2.43	0.05		1.41	0.71 to 2.97	0.23
Fully adjusted loglinear		2.32	1.13 to 5.19			1.15	0.77 to 1.67			1.17	0.65 to 2.05
Fully adjusted RCS		2.39	0.91 to 7.37	0.93		1.89	1.06 to 3.48	0.02		1.74	0.78 to 4.15	0.15
Ischaemic heart disease^{I20-I22, I24-I25, I51.3, I51.6}
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	1165	0.74	0.65 to 0.84		1050	0.87	0.78 to 0.96		739	0.86	0.75 to 0.99
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.80	0.68 to 0.93	0.06		0.87	0.77 to 0.98	0.84		0.97	0.82 to 1.16	0.01
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.06	0.88 to 1.27			1.01	0.91 to 1.13			1.01	0.86 to 1.18
Fully adjusted RCS		1.18	0.95 to 1.47	0.06		1.06	0.93 to 1.21	0.23		1.18	0.97 to 1.44	0.006
Cerebrovascular disease^{G45.0-G45.2, G45.4-G45.9, I60-I69}
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	201	0.86	0.64 to 1.15		180	0.85	0.67 to 1.07		119	0.87	0.62 to 1.20
RCS without HWSE adjustment		1.02	0.71 to 1.50	0.11		1.02	0.76 to 1.38	0.03		1.00	0.66 to 1.52	0.27
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.22	0.81 to 1.86			0.94	0.72 to 1.20			1.00	0.69 to 1.42
Fully adjusted RCS		1.62	0.96 to 2.88	0.09		1.21	0.86 to 1.70	0.02		1.21	0.76 to 1.95	0.18
COPD^J40-J44
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	213	0.78	0.60 to 1.02		186	0.88	0.72 to 1.08		130	0.95	0.71 to 1.26
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.83	0.60 to 1.18	0.52		0.91	0.71 to 1.18	0.67		1.37	0.92 to 2.07	0.006
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.14	0.79 to 1.67			1.05	0.84 to 1.31			1.14	0.82 to 1.56
Fully adjusted RCS		1.46	0.88 to 2.50	0.15		1.19	0.88 to 1.60	0.22		1.76	1.13 to 2.82	0.004
Cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease^{K70, K73-K74, K76.0}
Loglinear without HWSE adjustment	148	0.96	0.63 to 1.50		128	0.82	0.58 to 1.12		83	0.95	0.60 to 1.49
RCS without HWSE adjustment		0.96	0.62 to 1.54	0.98		0.76	0.52 to 1.10	0.42		1.10	0.63 to 1.93	0.34
Fully adjusted loglinear		1.90	1.02 to 3.70			1.04	0.72 to 1.48			1.15	0.68 to 1.91
Fully adjusted RCS		2.39	1.18 to 5.13	0.14		1.03	0.67 to 1.58	0.93		1.48	0.78 to 2.84	0.16

Findings in bold font are statistically significant with a 95% confidence interval that excludes 1.0.
*All models were adjusted by age (time scale) and race, birthdate (within 5 years) and fire department by matching; results for mesothelioma and multiple myeloma are not reported because there was less than 30 observed cases.
†P based on LRT comparing the RCS and loglinear models to assess for non-linearity.
CFD, Chicago Fire Department; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; HR, hazard ratio; HWSE, healthy worker survivor effect; ICD, International Classification of Diseases; LRT, likelihood ratio test; MN, malignancy; NHL, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma; NR, not calculated because there are less than 30 observed cases; PFD, Philadelphia Fire Department; RCS, restricted cubic spline.