Adjusted* Probit regression estimates work status change due to chronic disease diagnosis at time 1 and time 2
| Estimate | SE | p Value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arthritis (N=3874) | |||
| Time 1 total effects (path A) | 0.200 | 0.055 | <0.001 |
| Time 2 total effects (path C+(path A×path B)) | 0.360 | 0.090 | <0.001 |
| Time 2 total effect estimate | |||
| Direct effect (path C) | 0.107 | 0.092 | 0.246 |
| Effect mediated through time 1 work status (path A×path B) | 0.254 | 0.076 | 0.001 |
| Model fit: CFI=0.964, TLI=0.927; RMSEA 0.013 (0.006–0.018) | |||
| Back problems (N=4655) | |||
| Time 1 total effects (path A) | 0.194 | 0.061 | 0.001 |
| Time 2 total effects (path C+(path A×path B)) | 0.212 | 0.090 | 0.019 |
| Time 2 total effect estimate | |||
| Direct effect (path C) | −0.032 | 0.103 | 0.753 |
| Effect mediated through time 1 work status (path A×path B) | 0.244 | 0.082 | 0.003 |
| Model fit: CFI=0.997, TLI=0.994; RMSEA 0.003 (0.000–0.010) | |||
| Diabetes (N=1085) | |||
| Time 1 total effects (path A) | 0.321 | 0.081 | <0.001 |
| Time 2 total effects (path C+(path A×path B)) | 0.360 | 0.109 | 0.001 |
| Time 2 total effect estimate | |||
| Direct effect (path C) | −0.026 | 0.091 | 0.772 |
| Effect mediated through time 1 work status (path A×path B) | 0.387 | 0.104 | <0.001 |
| Model fit: CFI=0.996, TLI=0.990; RMSEA 0.010 (0.000–0.028) | |||
| Hypertension (N=3120) | |||
| Time 1 total effects (path A) | 0.064 | 0.068 | 0.341 |
| Time 2 total effects (path C+(path A×path B)) | 0.139 | 0.088 | 0.112 |
| Time 2 total effect estimate | |||
| Direct effect (path C) | 0.052 | 0.101 | 0.605 |
| Effect mediated through time 1 work status (path A×path B) | 0.087 | 0.093 | 0.349 |
| Model fit: CFI=0.991, TLI=0.981; RMSEA 0.006 (0.000–0.015) | |||
| Heart disease (N=883) | |||
| Time 1 total effects (path A) | 0.705 | 0.107 | <0.001 |
| Time 2 total effects (path C+(path A×path B)) | 0.387 | 0.156 | 0.013 |
| Time 2 total effect estimate | |||
| Direct effect (path C) | −0.597 | 0.363 | 0.100 |
| Effect mediated through time 1 work status (path A×path B) | 0.983 | 0.344 | 0.004 |
| Model fit: CFI=0.993, TLI=0.985; RMSEA 0.008 (0.000–0.027). | |||
Path model corresponds to figure 1, and is stratified by a chronic health condition of interest. Positive estimates indicate a higher likelihood of not working due to health reasons. A positive and larger estimate indicates an increase in the likelihood of an outcome.
*Estimate adjusted for baseline measures of sex, age (grouped) comorbidities, body mass index (grouped), occupational strength requirements, self-reported depression, marital status, geographic location, survey year and work hours. Based on the process of selecting respondents, each model may consist of a different subsample of the overall cohort and may to some extent overlap.
CFI, comparative fit index; RMSEA, root mean square error of approximation; TLI, Tucker-Lewis index.