Table 4

HRs for incident CHD, MI, stroke and heart failure during 2005–2011 by traffic-related exposures

CHD (n=200 457)MI (n=207 042)Stroke (n=207 047)Heart failure (n=209 215)
ExposureUnit/categoryHR1* (95% CI)HR2† (95% CI)HR1* (95% CI)HR2† (95% CI)HR1* (95% CI)HR2† (95% CI)HR1* (95% CI)HR2† (95% CI)
NOx20 μg/m3 change1.00 (0.96 to 1.04)0.97 (0.93 to 1.01)0.94 (0.88 to 1.01)0.91 (0.84 to 0.98)0.94 (0.89 to 0.99)0.90 (0.85 to 0.96)1.18 (1.08 to 1.28)1.10 (1.01 to 1.21)
Per cent of PM2.5 due to traffic1 μg/m3 change0.99 (0.94 to 1.05)0.96 (0.91 to 1.02)0.92 (0.84 to 1.02)0.88 (0.79 to 0.98)0.93 (0.86 to 1.10)0.88 (0.81 to 0.97)1.25 (1.11 to 1.40)1.15 (1.02 to 1.30)
Vehicle km driven‡None11111111
Low volume0.95 (0.91 to 1.01)0.95 (0.90 to 1.00)0.99 (0.91 to 1.08)0.98 (0.90 to 1.07)1.02 (0.96 to 1.11)1.02 (0.95 to 1.10)0.98 (0.90 to 1.06)0.96 (0.88 to 1.04)
High volume1.07 (1.00 to 1.15)1.05 (0.98 to 1.13)0.99 (0.88 to 1.12)0.97 (0.86 to 1.09)1.00 (0.88 to 1.15)0.98 (0.86 to 1.12)1.09 (0.96 to 1.23)1.02 (0.90 to 1.16)
Distance (m) to major road>250 m11111111
100 to 250 m1.00 (0.94 to 1.07)0.99 (0.93 to 1.06)0.96 (0.88 to 1.06)0.95 (0.87 to 1.05)1.01 (0.94 to 1.09)1.00 (0.93 to 1.08)1.09 (1.00 to 1.20)1.06 (0.97 to 1.17)
0 to 100 m1.03 (0.96 to 1.11)1.02 (0.95 to 1.09)0.97 (0.87 to 1.09)0.96 (0.85 to 1.07)0.99 (0.89 to 1.11)0.98 (0.87 to 1.09)1.06 (0.95 to 1.19)1.02 (0.91 to 1.14)
Lnight<55 dB11111111
55 to 600.88 (0.79 to 0.99)0.88 (0.79 to 0.98)0.90 (0.79 to 1.03)0.91 (0.79 to 1.03)0.97 (0.86 to 1.09)0.97 (0.86 to 1.10)0.87 (0.74 to 1.02)0.88 (0.75 to 1.03)
60–1.01 (0.93 to 1.10)1.00 (0.93 to 1.09)1.00 (0.86 to 1.15)0.99 (0.86 to 1.14)0.93 (0.83 to 1.05)0.92 (0.82 to 1.04)1.12 (0.96 to 1.29)1.09 (0.94 to 1.26)
  • *HR1: age, gender, smoking and BMI.

  • †HR2: as HR1, plus additional adjustment for IMD.

  • ‡Within 100 m radius of postcode address centroid only, with >100 000 km driven annually defined as high volume.

  • BMI, body mass index; CHD, coronary heart disease; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation; MI, myocardial infarction; NOx, nitrogen oxide; PM2.5, particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm.