Table 3

Baseline predictors of persistence of low back pain

Persistence of low back pain
Predictorn*%†PRR(95% CI)‡PRR(95% CI)§
 Office worker7156.81.01.0
 Nurse16260.71.1(0.9 to 1.3)1.0(0.8 to 1.3)
Occupational lifting¶14461.31.2(0.9 to 1.5)1.1(0.9 to 1.4)
Adverse beliefs about LBP
 Physical activity9358.51.0(0.8 to 1.1)0.9(0.8 to 1.0)
 Work-relatedness19661.61.2(1.0 to 1.5)1.2(1.0 to 1.5)
 Prognosis12864.71.2(1.1 to 1.4)1.1(1.0 to 1.3)
Mental health
 Intermediate6855.31.0(0.8 to 1.2)0.9(0.8 to 1.1)
 Poor10963.41.1(0.9 to 1.3)1.0(0.9 to 1.1)
Number of distressing somatic symptoms in past week
 16660.61.1(0.9 to 1.3)1.2(1.1 to 1.4)
 ≥25269.31.3(1.0 to 1.5)1.2(1.1 to 1.3)
 Former smoker5154.30.9(0.7 to 1.1)0.8(0.7 to 1.0)
 Current smoker7758.81.0(0.9 to 1.2)0.9(0.8 to 1.0)
LBP in past 12 months
 ≤1 month in total9748.511
 >1 month in total13670.81.4(1.2 to 1.7)1.4(1.2 to 1.6)
  • Analysis was restricted to the 392 subjects with LBP in the past month at baseline.

  • *Number of subjects with outcome.

  • †Percentage of subjects with outcome.

  • ‡Each risk factor analysed in a separate regression model that included sex, age (in four 10-year bands) and occupation.

  • §All risk factors analysed in a single regression model that also included sex and age (in four 10-year bands).

  • ¶Lifting weights >25 kg by hand in an average working day.

  • LBP, low back pain; PRR, prevalence rate ratios.