Baseline predictors of new low back pain and new disabling low back pain
| New low back pain | New disabling low back pain | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | n* | %† | PRR | (95% CI)‡ | PRR | (95% CI)§ | n* | %† | PRR | (95% CI)‡ | PRR | (95% CI)§ |
| Occupation | ||||||||||||
| Office worker | 51 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 20 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Nurse | 81 | 26.1 | 1.3 | (1.0 to 1.8) | 1.3 | (0.8 to 1.9) | 21 | 6.8 | 0.9 | (0.5 to 1.6) | 0.9 | (0.3 to 2.4) |
| Occupational lifting¶ | 64 | 25.8 | 0.9 | (0.6 to 1.4) | 1.0 | (0.7 to 1.4) | 17 | 6.9 | 1.0 | (0.4 to 2.9) | 1.0 | (0.4 to 2.6) |
| Adverse beliefs about LBP | ||||||||||||
| Physical activity | 51 | 22.6 | 1.0 | (0.7 to 1.3) | 0.9 | (0.7 to 1.2) | 11 | 4.9 | 0.6 | (0.3 to 1.1) | 0.6 | (0.3 to 1.1) |
| Work-relatedness | 106 | 24.5 | 1.3 | (0.8 to 1.9) | 1.1 | (0.8 to 1.6) | 37 | 8.6 | 3.3 | (1.2 to 9.2) | 3.5 | (1.2 to 9.7) |
| Prognosis | 52 | 23.5 | 1.0 | (0.7 to 1.3) | 0.8 | (0.6 to 1.1) | 19 | 8.6 | 1.4 | (0.8 to 2.5) | 1.4 | (0.7 to 2.5) |
| Mental health | ||||||||||||
| Good | 38 | 16.8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Intermediate | 53 | 27.8 | 1.7 | (1.2 to 2.4) | 1.4 | (1.0 to 2.0) | 14 | 7.3 | 1.6 | (0.7 to 3.6) | 1.4 | (0.7 to 3.0) |
| Poor | 41 | 25.3 | 1.5 | (1.0 to 2.2) | 1.2 | (0.8 to 1.7) | 17 | 10.5 | 2.4 | (1.1 to 5.0) | 1.9 | (0.9 to 4.0) |
| Number of distressing somatic symptoms in past week | ||||||||||||
| 0 | 61 | 17.5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 46 | 29.7 | 1.6 | (1.2 to 2.3) | 1.3 | (1.0 to 1.8) | 11 | 7.1 | 1.2 | (0.6 to 2.4) | 1.1 | (0.5 to 2.2) |
| ≥2 | 25 | 32.9 | 1.8 | (1.2 to 2.7) | 1.4 | (0.9 to 2.0) | 10 | 13.2 | 2.2 | (1.1 to 4.5) | 1.4 | (0.7 to 3.0) |
| Smoking | ||||||||||||
| Never | 58 | 21.7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5.6 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Former smoker | 26 | 26.3 | 1.4 | (0.9 to 2.1) | 1.1 | (0.7 to 1.5) | 15 | 15.2 | 2.9 | (1.5 to 5.8) | 2.6 | (1.3 to 5.1) |
| Current smoker | 48 | 22.5 | 1.0 | (0.7 to 1.4) | 0.9 | (0.7 to 1.2) | 11 | 5.2 | 0.9 | (0.4 to 2.0) | 0.9 | (0.4 to 1.9) |
| LBP in past 12 months | ||||||||||||
| No | 47 | 13.1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 5.6 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| ≤1 month in total | 68 | 34.9 | 2.6 | (1.9 to 3.7) | 2.4 | (1.7 to 3.3) | 17 | 8.7 | 1.6 | (0.9 to 3.1) | 1.2 | (0.6 to 2.2) |
| >1 month in total | 17 | 68.0 | 4.7 | (3.1 to 6.9) | 4.1 | (2.8 to 5.9) | 4 | 16.0 | 2.8 | (1.0 to 7.9) | 2.6 | (1.1 to 6.0) |
Analysis was restricted to the 579 subjects with no LBP in the past month at baseline.
*Number of subjects with outcome.
†Percentage of subjects with outcome.
‡Each risk factor analysed in a separate regression model that included sex, age (in four 10-year bands) and occupation.
§All risk factors analysed in a single regression model that also included sex and age (in four 10-year bands).
¶Lifting weights >25 kg by hand in an average working day.
LBP, low back pain; PRR, prevalence rate ratios.