Table 2 Parameters (SE) for mesothelioma rates, using Poisson regression, and equations used to estimate future mortality from all causes and malignant mesothelioma among the Wittenoom women
Mesothelioma rate modelCumulative exposure (f/ml-year)
ak<55–<1010–<2020–<3030+WorkerGOF χ2 (df)p Value
Model 1, zero lag−18.923.0000.69 (0.51)1.40 (0.44)1.95 (0.52)2.12 (0.56)1.33 (0.40)53.16 (97)0.99
Model 2, 6.7% clearance−24.235.1800.69 (0.51)1.41 (0.44)1.97 (0.52)2.16 (0.56)1.32 (0.40)50.06 (97)1.00
Model 3, 15% clearance−31.157.9700.69 (0.51)1.43 (0.44)1.99 (0.52)2.21 (0.56)1.31 (0.40)47.49 (97)1.00
Model 4, 5-year lag−16.752.5100.69 (0.51)1.40 (0.44)1.96 (0.52)2.12 (0.56)1.33 (0.40)52.08 (87)0.99
Model 5, 6.7% clearance−20.624.3600.69 (0.51)1.42 (0.44)1.98 (0.52)2.17 (0.56)1.31 (0.40)48.91 (87)0.99
Model 6, 15% clearance−25.716.7400.69 (0.51)1.43 (0.44)2.00 (0.52)2.22 (0.56)1.31 (0.40)46.46 (87)0.99
Model 7, 10-year lag−14.652.0100.69 (0.51)1.40 (0.44)1.96 (0.52)2.14 (0.56)1.32 (0.40)50.64 (87)0.99
Model 8, 6.7% clearance−17.093.5300.69 (0.51)1.42 (0.44)1.99 (0.52)2.19 (0.56)1.31 (0.40)47.49 (87)0.99
Model 9, 15% clearance−20.455.5000.69 (0.51)1.44 (0.44)2.01 (0.52)2.24 (0.56)1.30 (0.40)45.40 (87)0.99
SMR lung cancer2.711.782.550.981.12
Western Australian death rate from all causes, 2004 (women) (WADR): WADR = exp(−11.1199 +0.098978×age at 1 January)Western Australian death rate for lung cancer 2000–2004 (women) (DRLC): 8.1, 39.7, 81.9, 161.9, 286.2, 457.8, 594.9, 1034.2, 1596.1, 1712.5, 3666.1 for age groups 35–39, 40–44, 45–49, 59–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85+, respectively.Total death rate (TDR) = WADR+(SMRLC−1)*DRLC+MRProbability of dying in year = TDR/(1.0+0.5*TDR)
  • Derived from data in table 1 in online supplement. GOF, goodness of fit; MR, mesothelioma rate; SE, standard error; SMRLC, standardised mortality ratio for lung cancer.