Table 2 Estimated % increase in mortality over the ensuing 1-month period associated with a 10 μgm⁻³ increase in the black smoke concentration on any one day

Cause of death	% Increase (95% CI)
All-cause	1.68 (0.72 to 2.65)
Cardiovascular	0.43 (−0.97 to 1.86)
Respiratory	5.36 (2.93 to 7.84)
Non-cardiorespiratory causes	2.13 (0.82 to 3.47)

All models contain terms for season and other long-term trend, day of week, black smoke (lag 0, 1–6, 7–12, 13–18, 19–24 and 25–30 days) and temperature (modelled as a double linear relationship, lagged 0, 1–6, 7–12, 13–18, 19–24 and 25–30 days).