Mortality causes | Single lag model | Unconstrained distributed lag model | 3-day cumulative estimates† | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lag 0 | Lag 1 | Lag 2 | Lag 0 | Lag 1 | Lag 2 | 3 day | ||||||||
% | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | |
PM10, particulate matter of aero-diameter equal or less than 10 μm. | ||||||||||||||
*Estimates presented as percentage increase per 10 μg/m3 increment of PM10. | ||||||||||||||
†Using results of unconstrained distributed lag models (see text for more detail). | ||||||||||||||
‡Underlying cause of death from injuries excluded. | ||||||||||||||
§Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. | ||||||||||||||
¶Ischaemic heart disease. | ||||||||||||||
**Myocardial infarction. | ||||||||||||||
††Heart failure. | ||||||||||||||
All-cause‡ | 0.20 | 0.08 to 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.21 to 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.14 to 0.34 | 0.08 | −0.04 to 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.19 to 0.47 | 0.15 | 0.03 to 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.25 to 0.65 |
Respiratory disease | 0.34 | −0.07 to 0.75 | 0.52 | 0.15 to 0.89 | 0.51 | 0.16 to 0.86 | 0.20 | −0.21 to 0.61 | 0.35 | −0.08 to 0.78 | 0.41 | 0.02 to 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.38 to 1.36 |
COPD§ | −0.06 | −0.63 to 0.51 | 0.43 | −0.14 to 1.00 | 0.39 | −0.16 to 0.94 | −0.26 | −0.89 to 0.37 | 0.43 | −0.24 to 1.10 | 0.23 | −0.38 to 0.84 | 0.43 | −0.35 to 1.21 |
Pneumonia | 0.50 | −0.09 to 1.09 | 0.59 | −0.12 to 1.30 | 0.82 | 0.25 to 1.39 | 0.37 | −0.28 to 1.02 | 0.15 | −0.71 to 1.01 | 0.75 | 0.14 to 1.36 | 1.24 | 0.46 to 2.02 |
Heart disease | 0.12 | −0.06 to 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.12 to 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.17 to 0.57 | 0.02 | −0.18 to 0.22 | 0.19 | −0.05 to 0.43 | 0.30 | 0.05 to 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.25 to 0.75 |
IHD | 0.19 | −0.03 to 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.19 to 0.63 | 0.43 | 0.10 to 0.76 | 0.06 | −0.18 to 0.30 | 0.24 | −0.01 to 0.49 | 0.34 | −0.01 to 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.32 to 0.98 |
MI** | 0.36 | −0.05 to 0.77 | 0.17 | −0.18 to 0.52 | 0.13 | −0.22 to 0.48 | 0.39 | −0.04 to 0.82 | −0.02 | −0.43 to 0.39 | 0.09 | −0.28 to 0.46 | 0.36 | −0.25 to 0.97 |
HF†† | 0.17 | −0.63 to 0.97 | −0.01 | −0.81 to 0.79 | 0.78 | −0.004 to 1.56 | 0.14 | −0.96 to 1.24 | −0.57 | −1.80 to 0.66 | 1.27 | 0.17 to 2.37 | 0.60 | −0.50 to 1.70 |
Dysrhythmias | −0.23 | −1.41 to 0.95 | 0.37 | −0.47 to 1.21 | 0.33 | −0.55 to 1.21 | −0.32 | −1.57 to 0.93 | 0.44 | −0.56 to 1.44 | 0.31 | −0.71 to 1.33 | 0.20 | −1.03 to 1.43 |
Stroke | 0.09 | −0.42 to 0.60 | 0.41 | −0.02 to 0.84 | 0.14 | −0.27 to 0.55 | 0.08 | −0.39 to 0.55 | 0.38 | −0.17 to 0.93 | 0.05 | −0.54 to 0.64 | 0.46 | −0.13 to 1.05 |