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Original research
Improving trends estimates for specific work-related ill-health conditions when excess zeros are present in a voluntary health reporting scheme
  1. Matthew Gittins1,
  2. Melanie Carder2,
  3. Martin J Seed2,
  4. Ireny Iskandar2,
  5. Sarah Ann Michelle Daniels2,
  6. Martie van Tongeren2
  1. 1 Centre for Biostatistics, The University of Manchester Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, Manchester, UK
  2. 2 Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, The University of Manchester Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, Manchester, Manchester, UK
  1. Correspondence to Mr Matthew Gittins, Centre for Biostatistics, The University of Manchester Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, Manchester, Manchester, UK; matthew.gittins{at}manchester.ac.uk

Abstract

Background Trends in occupational disease incidence are estimated in voluntary reporting schemes such as The Health and Occupational Reporting (THOR) Network in the UK. Voluntary reporting schemes request responses even if no cases are observed to reduce uncertainty in non-response. This may result in false zeros that bias trends estimates. Analysis using zero-inflated models is unsuitable for specific health outcomes due to overestimates of the excess zeros. Here, we attempt to account for excess zeros while investigating condition-specific trends.

Methods Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models were fitted to three THOR work-related ill health surveillance schemes Occupational Skin Disease Surveillance (437 reporters between 1996 and 2019), Occupational Physicians Reporting Activity (1094 between 1996 and 2019) and Surveillance of Work-Related and Occupational Respiratory Disease (878 between 1999 and 2019). The probability associated with a response being a false zero was estimated and applied in weighted negative binomial (wgt-NB) models fitted to specific ill-heath conditions. Three ill-health conditions from the three THOR schemes were considered; contact dermatitis, musculoskeletal and asthma, respectively.

Results Wgt-NB models approximately estimated the incidence rate ratios reported by the ZINB models (eg, EPIDERM; ZINB=0.969, NB=0.963, wgt-NB=0.968) for all health outcome annual trends. This was consistent for specific health outcomes which also tended towards the null (eg, contact dermatitis; NB=0.964, wgt-NB=0.969), indicating potentially overestimated downward trends. Though as the ratio of excess zeros to true zeros decreased in rarer health outcomes, the influence on trends also decreased.

Conclusions Through weighting, we were able to adjust for excess zeros in health outcome-specific trends estimates. Though uncertainty is still present in underlying reporter behaviour meaning caution should be applied with interpretation of any results.

  • Occupational Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Asthma
  • Dermatitis, Contact
  • Musculoskeletal System

Data availability statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. Access to the data used in this study is controlled by The Occupational Health Reporting Network (THOR). THOR provides an ad hoc request service for the data collected from their reporters. This data is available to reporting physicians, funding bodies, members of the public, research institutions and other interested parties. You can request access to our data through our online form at https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/thor/.

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Data availability statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. Access to the data used in this study is controlled by The Occupational Health Reporting Network (THOR). THOR provides an ad hoc request service for the data collected from their reporters. This data is available to reporting physicians, funding bodies, members of the public, research institutions and other interested parties. You can request access to our data through our online form at https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/thor/.

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Footnotes

  • Twitter @martievt

  • Contributors MG acts as guarantor for the study, accepts full responsibility for the work and/or the conduct of the study, had access to the data, and controlled the decision to publish. MG developed the research question, proposed methodology, analysed the data, and drafted the paper. MC, SJD, II, MJS and MvT developed the research question, provided feedback on proposed methodology, were responsible for souring the data, and reviewed early drafts of the paper.

  • Funding This work and the THOR schemes were supported by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and charitable donations. This paper expresses the views of the authors and not necessarily the funding body.

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.