Rationale Insight into the effectiveness of intervention strategies will help realise a decrease in the occupational disease burden from (allergic) respiratory diseases in the bakery population.

Objectives To use a simulation model to assess the impact of different intervention strategies on the disease burden of the bakery population over time.

Methods A recently developed dynamic population based model was used to prospectively evaluate the impact on disease burden resulting from different intervention strategies. We distinguished interventions based on exposure reductions for flour dust and fungal α-amylase, health surveillance combined with reduction in exposure, and pre-employment screening.

Main Results The impact of most interventions on disease burden was limited, generally less than 50% for lower respiratory symptoms and disabling occupational asthma. Only the rigorous health surveillance strategy, identifying workers who are sensitised or report upper respiratory symptoms and decreasing their individual exposures by 90% shortly after diagnosis, resulted in a decrease of almost 60% in disease burden after 20 years.

Conclusions This study demonstrates that different intervention strategies have substantially different impacts on the burden of disease. The time window during which changes occur differs considerably between strategies. This information can assist policy makers in their choice of intervention and gives guidance for achievable reductions in disease burden.