Objectives To develop a prediction model of outcome due to drop out in treatment for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Japan as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of collaboration between occupational and clinical physicians.

Methods Using both claim and health check-up data (JMDC) of beneficiaries aged 20 to 74 years who were covered by health insurance societies between 2008 and 2016, we identified high risk 5 33 955 examinees of health checkups who met the following criteria and had no claim data on the corresponding items 4 months prior to the health checkups. The criteria was either blood pressure, blood glucose level, or blood lipid level provided by Japanese government.

Results The cumulative non-visiting rates at 12 months after health check-ups were 84.4%. The rate of drop off during treatment was over 70%. As for HT, DM, and DL, the cumulative non-visiting rates at 12 months were 84.3, 67.9, and 86.1%, respectively. When focusing on the high risk group, the rate was 74.0%, since the rate for extremely high risk DM (HbA1c≥8.4%) was 51.9%.

Conclusion Over 80% high risk examinees of non-communicable diseases did not visit to medical institutions during 1 year period after health check-ups, although approximately half of the individuals with extremely high risk of DM visited to physicians at least one time. Finally, we developed a predictive scoring model for visiting to medical institutions as well as the risk of drop out from treatment, and it was well validated from both discrimination and calibration viewpoints. In addition, we evaluated the effectiveness of strategy for preventing treatment drop off through collaborative support from occupational and clinical physicians. This strategy enables public/occupational health staffs to individualize population for strong intervention and to support harmonization of treatment and work in NCDs.