Introduction Short-term disability leave can be considered as a measure of not being well enough to work. The American Manufacturing Cohort, followed 1996–2013, consists of employees of a light-metal company that provided short-term disability insurance to all employees: coverage to replace wages for up to 6 months of work absence due to medical issues. We hypothesized that since brief short-term disability leave allows workers time to recover from illness or injury without losing their jobs, it should be protective against employment termination.

Methods We analyzed 18 386 (83% male, 80% white) hourly employees. We censored workers once their accumulated disability leave exceeded 6 weeks because longer time spent on short-term disability leave suggests more serious illness or injury that may prevent return to work. To analyze the effect of short-term disability leave on employment termination, we applied a marginal structural pooled logistic model that allowed for a time-varying hazard function. We adjusted for time-varying confounding by occupational exposures and health-related variables using inverse probability weighting. Using the estimated coefficients, we compared the predicted probabilities (by person-month) of terminating employment with the corresponding counterfactual probabilities if the worker had never taken disability leave. These probabilities yielded estimated survival curves under the two scenarios.

Results The average worker was followed for 5.5 years. Approximately 42% of the workers took at least one day of disability leave, and 48% terminated employment during follow-up. We estimated that 1058 (29%) more workers would have terminated employment within 5 years from cohort entry if the company had had no disability leave benefit than were predicted under the natural course.

Conclusion Short-term disability leave is a potentially relevant health variable for occupational epidemiologists. This analysis suggests that short-term disability leave can help employees retain their jobs when a temporary health issue prevents them from working.