Backgroud Malignant mesothelioma is a malignant tumour on the pleura or the peritoneum caused mostly by asbestos. Although asbestos is not currently used in Korea, the incidence of mesothelioma is increasing due to its long latent period. This study was the first to predict the future incidence of malignant mesothelioma in Korea over the next 20 years.

Method Mesothelioma incidence data from 1995–2014 was acquired from the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR). Demographic data was acquired from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) for 1995–2034. An APC model with Møller’s power-link function was utilised to estimate the future incidence of mesothelioma.

Result It was predicted that 2684 and 1270 new cases of mesothelioma in men and women would occur over the next 20 years. For both sexes, the mesothelioma incidence rate was predicted to be greater in 2030–2034 (men, 0.622; women, 0.224) compared to that in 2010–2014 (men, 0.280; women, 0.152). The age-standardised incidence rate (ASR) was predicted to be slightly greater in 2030–2034 (men, 0.229; women, 0.109) relative to the rate in 2010–2014 (men, 0.216; women, 0.104) in both sex. The changes in mesothelioma incidence were mostly caused by changes in the population structure of Korea due to ageing and not by changes in the mesothelioma risk ratio.

Conclusion The projected mesothelioma incidence continuously increases in Korea over the next 20 years. Although it was not related to an increase in the mesothelioma risk ratio, continuous preventive efforts are necessary.