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P010 Forecasting of mesothelioma mortality in argentina, 2014–2023
  1. Andrés Trotta1,
  2. Vilma Sousa Santana1,
  3. Lucia Andreozzi2
  1. 1Institute of Collective Health – National University of Bahia, Salvador, Brasil
  2. 2School of Economy and Statistics – University of Rosario, Argentina


Objective Based on mesothelioma mortality estimates for 1980–2013, the corresponding number of deaths and mortality are projected for 2014 to 2023 in Argentina.

Methods Data are from death certificates, Mortality Database (DEIS), Health Ministry of Argentina. Study population reference was full of Argentina over 15 years from Instituto de Estadisticas y Censos. Mesothelioma was defined using the following codes of the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Rev. 163, used from 1980–1997; and ICD-10th Rev. codes and C45.0, C45.1, C45.2, C45.3, C45.7, C45.9, from 1998 through 2013. Mortality rate projections were based on the Lee-Carter model using age as predictors. The Random Walk Drift model is used to forecast the general index for the time period that goes from 2013 to 2023.

Results The mesothelioma mortality rate was 2.34/1,000,000 in 1998, when it started to increase, reaching 5.62/1,000,000 in 2013. Projected estimates show a continuous rising until 2023 when it peaks at 7.02/1,000,000, a 21.8% increase over this time period. This increasing in time was higher among those having 80 to 100 years of age, and among men (7,70/1.000.000 in 2014 and 9,74/1.000.000 in 2023) compared to women (4,01/1.000.000 in 2014 and 4,31/1.000.000 in 2023).

Conclusions The 2002 asbestos ban need to be fully implemented as well as a surveillance based on screening of exposed individuals to provide prompt treatment of this lethal but preventable disease.

  • mesothelioma
  • mortality
  • forecasting
  • Argentina.

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