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0261  Estimating the burden of occupational cancer taking into account age0261  Estimating the burden of occupational cancer taking into account age
  1. Sally Hutchings1,
  2. Lesley Rushton1,
  3. Tim Driscoll2
  1. 1Imperial College London, London, UK
  2. 2University of Sidney, Sydney, Australia


Objectives Estimates of burden of disease are generally based on population attributable fractions (PAFs) calculated for a whole population. However, the age structure of an exposed group has an impact on these estimates, because disease rates vary by age and the exposed population may be younger than the national population in the estimation year.

Method To account for this, PAFs can be calculated by age, and applied separately by age to national incidence data. We have adapted our risk period methodology, which takes account of latency to estimate numbers exposed to a causative agent using Levin’s formula for PAF, to estimate a workforce turnover factor by age group, which accounts for the age structure of an exposed population. To estimate age-specific RRs from unit relative risks per year of exposure, the link between age and duration of exposure can be modelled using Monte-Carlo methods.

Results We show the effect of estimating the burden of lung cancer due to occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica for Britain using PAF estimates which do or do not take age into account. Taking account of age and assuming recruitment between ages 15–44, there were 1188 lung cancer registrations in males in 2010, or 798 without accounting for age, or 636 vs. 804 assuming recruitment between ages 15–24. The extension to using age-specific RRs is demonstrated for occupational asbestos-related lung cancers.

Conclusions Given the above results, and although highly dependent on assumptions made about workforce ages, there is clearly a case to be made to estimate PAFs by age.

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