Table 3 Modification by city characteristics of the two-day cumulative effect of extreme cold on mortality. Comparison of the predicted change in mortality at the 25th and 75th percentile of the effect modifier distribution
Mean of cold months’ temperature (°C), % (95% CI)Variance of cold months’ temperature (°C), % (95% CI)Central heating (%), % (95% CI)Population density (population/km2), % (95% CI)
Change in total mortality at the:
    25th percentile1.31 (0.04 to 2.60)1.88 (0.75 to 3.03)1.79 (0.28 to 3.32)1.87 (0.50 to 3.26)
    75th percentile1.81 (0.62 to 3.02)1.13 (−0.14 to 2.41)1.22 (−0.11 to 2.57)1.70 (0.60 to 2.82)
Change in MI mortality at the:
    25th percentile3.10 (−1.36 to 7.77)4.65 (0.27 to 9.22)4.38 (−1.61 to 10.7)4.66 (−0.43 to 10.0)
    75th percentile4.71 (0.17 to 9.46)3.13 (−1.42 to 7.89)3.92 (−1.05 to 9.144.26 (0.17 to 8.51)
Change in CA mortality at the:
    25th percentile11.9 (−1.65 to 27.4)18.00 (4.71 to 32.9)18.0 (2.28 to 36.2)17.8 (3.96 to 33.5)
    75th percentile19.0 (6.29 to 33.3)14.00 (0.19 to 29.7)14.2 (0.90 to 29.2)16.7 (5.29 to 29.3)
  • MI, myocardial infarction; CA, cardiac arrest.