Percentage increase in mortality (all cause) associated with a 1°C decrease in the daytime mean temperature (when temperature is <11°C)—sensitivity of estimate to the number of degrees of freedom (df) used to adjust for seasonal and other long term effects
| Lag* | 4df | 7df | 9df | 11df |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate† (95% CI) | Estimate (95% CI) | Estimate (95% CI) | Estimate (95% CI) | |
| *All six lag periods included in model simultaneously. | ||||
| †To enable a direct comparison of the lag 0 estimates with the 6 day lag estimates, the estimates refer to a 1°C decrease in the daytime mean temperature on any one day within each lag period. | ||||
| 0 | 0.00 (−0.03 to 0.02) | 0.00 (−0.03 to 0.02) | −0.01 (−0.03 to 0.02) | −0.01 (−0.04 to 0.01) |
| 1–6 | 0.20 (0.17 to 0.24) | 0.20 (0.16 to 0.24) | 0.19 (0.15 to 0.22) | 0.16 (0.12 to 0.20) |
| 7–12 | 0.15 (0.11 to 0.18) | 0.14 (0.11 to 0.17) | 0.13 (0.09 to 0.17) | 0.09 (0.05 to 0.13) |
| 13–18 | 0.10 (0.07 to 0.13) | 0.09 (0.06 to 0.13) | 0.09 (0.05 to 0.12) | 0.04 (0.00 to 0.08) |
| 19–24 | 0.09 (0.06 to 0.12) | 0.08 (0.05 to 0.12) | 0.07 (0.04 to 0.11) | 0.04 (0.00 to 0.08) |
| 25–30 | 0.17 (−0.02, 0.36) | 0.06 (−0.14, 0.27) | 0.01 (−0.22, 0.23) | −0.20 (−0.44, 0.04) |