Percentage increase (and 95% confidence intervals) in mortality associated with a 1°C drop in the daytime mean temperature (at temperatures <11°C) by cause of death and age group
| Age group | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ⩾65 years | <65 years | ||
| Cause of death | Lag* | Estimate† (95% CI) | Estimate† (95% CI) |
| *All six lag periods included in model simultaneously. | |||
| †To enable a direct comparison of the lag 0 estimates with the 6 day lag estimates, the estimates refer to a 1°C decrease in the daytime mean temperature on any one day within each lag period. | |||
| Cardiovascular | 0 | 0.00 (−0.24 to 0.24) | −0.10 (−0.65 to 0.46) |
| 1–6 | 0.27 (0.21 to 0.33) | 0.19 (0.05 to 0.34) | |
| 7–12 | 0.15 (0.09 to 0.20) | 0.06 (−0.07 to 0.19) | |
| 13–18 | 0.09 (0.04 to 0.15) | 0.12 (−0.01 to 0.25) | |
| 19–24 | 0.09 (0.03 to 0.15) | −0.01 (−0.14 to 0.12) | |
| 25–30 | 0.02 (−0.0 to 0.07) | −0.03 (−0.16 to 0.10) | |
| Respiratory | 0 | −0.33 (−0.80 to 0.14) | 0.78 (−0.27 to 1.83) |
| 1–6 | 0.17 (0.06 to 0.29) | 0.20 (−0.07 to 0.47) | |
| 7–12 | 0.24 (0.14 to 0.35) | 0.27 (0.03 to 0.51) | |
| 13–18 | 0.24 (0.13, 0.34) | 0.35 (0.11 to 0.60) | |
| 19–24 | 0.11 (0.01 to 0.21) | 0.07 (−0.17 to 0.31) | |
| 25–30 | 0.09 (−0.02 to 0.19) | −0.02 (−0.26 to 0.22) | |