Objectives: To evaluate mesothelioma death trends in Spain and to predict future cases of mesothelioma. Methods: After descriptive analysis of mesothelioma mortality data, an age-period-cohort model was applied to make projections of mesothelioma deaths. Results: From 1977 to 2001, 1,928 men older than 35 died of mesothelioma in Spain. Projections indicate that 1,321 men are expected to die from mesothelioma between 2007 and 2016. Conclusion: It is expected that mesothelioma deaths will increase at least until 2016. Available data do not allow a prediction of the year mortality will start decreasing.
- occupational diseases
- pleural neoplasms
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