Objectives We compared the incidence rates of pleural (MPL) and peritoneal (MPR) mesotheliomas between Quebec and the rest of Canada to describe past and estimate future temporal trends of MPL in Quebec until the year 2032.
Methods New cases occurring between 1984 and 2007 were counted in the Canadian Cancer Registry according to the international classification of diseases for Oncology, 3rd version (ICD-O-3). Equivalent ICD-O-1 coding was used to identify mesothelioma cases before 1992. Age-standardised rates were compared between sexes and regions. Poisson regressions were carried out to assess the effects of birth cohorts and to estimate future rates of MPL.
Results The age-standardised incidence rates of MPL averaged 2.12 and 0.42 for 100000 person-years among Quebec men and women respectively. Age-adjusted rates of MPL were 1.45 (95% CI = 1.37–1.54) times higher in Quebec men and 2.00 (95% CI = 1.76–2.27) times in women than among Canadian men and women. The age-adjusted rate of MPR was 1.36 (95% CI = 1.09-1.68) times higher among Quebec residents than in the rest of Canada. A significant slowdown in the increase of MPL was observed after 1995. Younger cohorts experienced a lower incidence of MPL. The incidence of MPL should peak between 2008 and 2012 (at 2.79/100000 in Québec and 1.79/100000 in Canada). In Quebec, there would be an absolute excess of some 700 new male cases and 160 female cases over a 5-year period.
Conclusions The observed higher and continuously increasing rates of MPL in Québec warrant a stricter surveillance of mesothelioma incidence and asbestos exposure to ensure that rates effectively drop down to background levels.
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