Table 4 Modification by city characteristics of the two-day cumulative effect of extreme heat on mortality. Comparison of the predicted
change in mortality at the 25th and 75th percentile of the effect modifier distribution
| Mean of warm months’ temperature (°C), % (95% CI) | Variance of warm months’ temperature (°C), % (95% CI) | Central air conditioning (%), % (95% CI) | Population density (population/km2), % (95% CI) | |
| Change in total mortality at the: | ||||
| 25th percentile | 9.25* (6.22 to 12.4) | 4.33* (1.90 to 6.83) | 9.68* (6.55 to 12.9) | 3.36* (1.17 to 5.61) |
| 75th percentile | 3.81* (1.42 to 6.25) | 7.77* (5.03 to 10.6) | 3.24* (0.44 to 6.13) | 5.46* (3.51 to 7.44) |
| Change in MI mortality at the: | ||||
| 25th percentile | 7.86** (2.44 to 13.6) | 3.66 (−1.07 to 8.61) | 7.99** (2.70 to 13.6) | 2.87 (−2.09 to 8.08) |
| 75th percentile | 2.62** (−1.98 to 7.43) | 5.20 (−0.12 to 10.8) | 2.05** (−3.38 to 7.78) | 3.99 (−0.27 to 8.43) |
| Change in CA mortality at the: | ||||
| 25th percentile | 15.0 (−1.08 to 33.6) | 0.29* (−10.8 to 12.8) | 11.8 (−2.19 to 27.9) | −0.96* (−12.5 to 12.2) |
| 75th percentile | 1.64 (−10.4 to 15.3) | 15.8* (2.04 to 31.3) | 3.65 (−10.6 to 20.2) | 3.79* (−6.67 to 15.4) |
-
MI, myocardial infarction; CA, cardiac arrest.
-
*Two-sided p value <0.05 in the meta-regression model; **two-sided p value <0.1 in the meta-regression model.
