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Occup Environ Med 2003;60:458 doi:10.1136/oem.60.6.458
  • Letter

Predictions of mortality from mesothelioma

  1. G Berry1,
  2. A W Musk2,
  3. N H de Klerk3,
  4. A Johnson4,
  5. D H Yates4
  1. 1School of Public Health, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia; geoffb@health.usyd.edu.au
  2. 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia
  3. 3Department of Public Health, University of Western Australia
  4. 4Dust Diseases Board (NSW) Research and Education Unit, Sydney

      The update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands1 provides welcome news that the peak number and the total during 2000–28 are now predicted to be only a little more than half of the figures predicted only four years earlier.2 This marked change in prediction has occurred because the known decrease in asbestos use after 1984 and a ban in 1993 were taken into account in the modelling, and there were five extra years of data (1994–98).

      Since most mesotheliomas are caused by asbestos the pattern of use during different periods of time has a marked influence on …

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