Occup Environ Med. Published Online First: 21 September 2007. doi:10.1136/oem.2007.034769
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Mesothelioma mortality in men: trends during 1977-2001 and projections for 2002-2016 in Spain
1 Occupational Health Research Unit. Pompeu Fabra University, Spain
2 Catalonian Oncology Institute, Spain
3 National Epidemiology Centre, Spain
4 Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Spain
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: silvia.pitarque{at}upf.edu.
Accepted 3 August 2007
Abstract
Objectives: To evaluate mesothelioma death trends in Spain and to predict future cases of mesothelioma. Methods: After descriptive analysis of mesothelioma mortality data, an age-period-cohort model was applied to make projections of mesothelioma deaths. Results: From 1977 to 2001, 1,928 men older than 35 died of mesothelioma in Spain. Projections indicate that 1,321 men are expected to die from mesothelioma between 2007 and 2016. Conclusion: It is expected that mesothelioma deaths will increase at least until 2016. Available data do not allow a prediction of the year mortality will start decreasing.
Keywords: asbestos, occupational diseases, pleural neoplasms
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