© 2003 BMJ Publishing Group
LETTER
Predictions of mortality from mesothelioma
1 School of Public Health, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia; geoffb@health.usyd.edu.au
2 Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia
3 Department of Public Health, University of Western Australia
4 Dust Diseases Board (NSW) Research and Education Unit, Sydney
Keywords: mesothelioma; mortality
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
The update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands1 provides welcome news that the peak number and the total during 2000–28 are now predicted to be only a little more than half of the figures predicted only four years earlier.2 This marked change in prediction has occurred because the known decrease in asbestos use after 1984 and a ban in 1993 were taken into account in the modelling, and there were five extra years of data (1994–98).
Since most mesotheliomas are caused by asbestos the pattern of use during different periods of time has a marked influence on the risk in cohorts whose working lives covered different periods. The marked effect of the discontinuation of crocidolite importation by 1970 into the United Kingdom on the amount of crocidolite found in the lungs of men born in 1943 or later, who developed a mesothelioma between 1990 and 1996
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