Risk of leukaemia among children living near the Solway coast of Dumfries and Galloway Health Board area, Scotland, 1975-2002

Judith M Stark ¹, Roger J Black ¹ and David H Brewster ^1*

¹ Information Services Division, NHS National Services Scotland, United Kingdom

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: david.brewster{at}isd.csa.scot.nhs.uk.

Accepted 14 September 2006

Abstract

Objective: To investigate allegations of an excess risk of leukaemia among children living near the Solway Firth coast of Dumfries and Galloway Health Board area in Scotland. Methods: Incident cases of childhood leukaemia (ICD-10 C91-C95, ages 0-14 years) for two approximately equal calendar periods of diagnosis (1975-1989 and 1990-2002) were selected from the Scottish Cancer Registry database and allocated to pre-determined study areas, based on proximity of residence to the Solway coast. Expected numbers of childhood leukaemia cases for the study areas were calculated by applying Scotland’s age-, sex- and calendar period-specific rates to estimates of the person-years at risk in each study area. The ratios of observed to expected cases or standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated overall and for each sex and calendar period category. Exact 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the SIRs were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed number of cases of leukaemia. Results: There were no statistically significantly increased SIRs in boys, girls or both combined for any of the areas or periods of diagnosis studied. For the total period of observation (1975-2002), and the more immediate coastal area studied, the SIR for both sexes combined was 1.22 (95% CI: 0.53-2.40). Conclusion: There is no statistically significant evidence of an excess risk of childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of the Solway Firth coast of Dumfries and Galloway Health Board area in Scotland.

Keywords: Scotland, child, epidemiology, ionising radiation, leukaemia

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