Daily deaths are associated with combustion particles rather than SO2 in Philadelphia
Joel Schwartz
Environmental
Epidemiology Program, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington
Ave, Boston MA 02115, USA
Correspondence to: Dr J Schwartz jschwrtz{at}hsph.harvard.edu
Accepted 15 June 2000
OBJECTIVES
To assess
whether the association between SO2 and daily deaths in
Philadelphia during the years 1974-88 is due to its correlation with
airborne particles, and vice versa.
METHODS There is a
significant variation in the relation between total suspended
particulate (TSP) and SO2 in Philadelphia by year and
season. Firstly, 30 separate regressions were fitted for each pollutant
in the warm and cold season of each year. These regressions controlled
for weather, long term temporal patterns, and day of the week. Then a
meta-regression was performed to find whether the effect of
SO2 was due to TSP, or vice versa.
RESULTSControlling
for TSP, there was no significant association between SO2
and daily deaths. By contrast, in periods when TSP was less correlated
with SO2, its association with daily deaths was higher.
However, all of the association between TSP and daily deaths was
explained by its correlation with extinction coefficient, a measurement
of the scattering of light by fine particles, which has been shown to
be highly correlated with fine combustion particles in Philadelphia.
CONCLUSIONSThe
association between air pollution and daily deaths in Philadelphia is
due to fine combustion particles, and not to SO2.
Keywords: air pollution; mortality; hierarchical models
© 2000 by Occupational and Environmental Medicine
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